Price growth cools, but home values still burn wallets in 2026
After a brutal run of price hikes through 2025, the housing market kicked off the year with what looks like a gentle tap on the brakes that started late last year. On paper, the data shows cooling, even small pullbacks in a few cities. In the wallet, it’s a different story. Homes are still expensive, rents are still following the same logic, and for many people, that so-called “relief” hasn’t shown up yet.
Cooling charts don’t make suburbs any cheaper.
The year starts with headlines talking about price growth cooling, which sounds like good news in theory. According to the latest data, national home price growth lost momentum toward the end of 2025. After a year where median home values climbed hard, December showed signs of fatigue, especially in the big markets like Sydney and Melbourne.
But slower growth doesn’t mean homes are suddenly affordable. What changed is the speed, not how expensive houses already are. Values are still sitting at historically high levels, and that’s what actually hits when rent is due or when buying a place of your own still feels just out of reach.
A red-hot 2025, and a strange start to 2026
Context matters here. In 2025, Australian home prices rose close to 9 per cent nationally, adding tens of thousands of dollars to the average home value. That jump left the market stretched well before this late-year “speed bump” even arrived.
Now the picture is mixed. Some capitals are showing flat results or slight recent dips, while others like Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are still posting solid gains. There’s no crash, but there’s no clear correction either. It feels more like a pause after aggressive growth, with no one quite sure whether this is a temporary breather or just the new normal.
“Growth is cooling, but prices aren’t falling at the pace many hoped for.”
What this actually means day to day
For tradies, and anyone trying to buy a place, this slowdown doesn’t change much on the ground. Buying is still tough, renting is still expensive, and moving further out remains the go-to option for many, even if it turns into a longer, uglier commute. Slower price growth doesn’t automatically ease cost-of-living pressure.
On top of that, a market that’s neither clearly rising nor falling creates uncertainty. New projects get reconsidered and existing ones stretch out. It’s not full paralysis, but confidence isn’t exactly flooding back either.
What to expect for the rest of the year
Looking ahead, most analysts aren’t calling a sharp drop in 2026. Instead, they’re expecting more moderate growth. That means prices likely won’t rip higher like they did in 2025, but they’re also unlikely to fall off a cliff. Even a brief calm after a storm can feel welcome.
For tradies though, the takeaway is simple and not very glamorous. The market has cooled on the charts, but it’s still hot where it hurts. 2026 starts with every dollar under pressure and that “cooling” yet to turn into real relief.
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This is not a story about wealthy people whinging over expensive finishes. This is about ironclad contracts, untouchable builders and a client who says he was left with a rubbish penthouse and then threatened on top of it. The video has already gone viral, and what it shows is hard to ignore while the whole industry watches. This is exactly the kind of yarn that gets passed around on smoko, coffee in hand.